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Getting The Deal Through

Investors could almost be forgiven for being caught off guard by the turbulence that swept global markets in 2018. A steady rally that persisted through remarkable uncertainty may have convinced them that asset valuation had mysteriously decoupled from the risks associated with escalating trade conflicts, growing tensions between nuclear powers, the rise of populism and monetary tightening. But hindsight is twenty-twenty, and the optimism felt by many at the beginning of the year was not fully irrational. Global GDP had been growing at healthy rates since the financial crisis and inflation in the advanced economies was in line with expectations.

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